ARIZONA DAILY STAR: Thurs., Oct. 18, 2007

Analyst: Housing slowdown to linger

By Christie Smythe

Expects high inventory, sales slide will delay local recovery until 2010: A Tucson housing market analyst is projecting a much deeper, longer slowdown that earlier anticipated. In his monthly Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter, analyst John Strobeck said it might not recover until 2010 if inventory levels remain high and the sales pace stays the same.

"It will be at least that long, maybe longer," he said in a phone interview. The Tucson Association of Realtors also released a report showing sales declines in September, but a representative from the group said she believes the market is stabilizing. Strobeck's report, released Tuesday, showed drops of about 20% in the number of new-home sales and about 18% in the number of existing-home sales in September compared with the same month last year.

The median, or middle price, for new homes fell about 8% to $235,496 compared with September 2006, according to Strobeck's report. The median price for existing homes rose by about 3% to $206,000, compared with the same month last year, according to the report.

Strobeck said builders are cutting back sharply in response to the slowdown. The volume of new home permits in September dropped to 286, the lowest monthly number since January 1993.

FULL STORY: http://www.azstarnet.com/allheadlines/206856